Season Preview: Liverpool
This version is updated to reflect the likely signing of Moises Caicedo from Brighton.
Anfield. The Main Stand.
To call last season a disappointment would be far too kind. In the campaign before, the Mighty Reds were a whisker from an unprecedented quadruple. So, the hope for an encore was high.
Almost immediately, though, whatever belief fans had, myself included, had evaporated. The finely tuned machine built by Jurgen Klopp was sputtering–not just out of the starting blocks but through most of the season.
The results were decent enough to keep the squad within touching distance of a Champions League spot, just enough to keep the hope alive. Unfortunately, unlike the 20-21 season, there were no late-season heroics, and Liverpool finished fifth–a European spot, but not in the coveted competition.
Tactics. Transfers. Titles.
There was a call from fans to change the tactics, overhaul the team, and use the summer to renew our chase for a second Premier League title. The shift in tactics has largely come. Trent Alexander Arnold spent the last two months playing an inverted winger role–switching to a deep-laying playmaker once Liverpool regained possession.
Will Mac Allister fill in at the 6?
But a permanent shift would likely require a change in personnel. Many in the old guard would need to leave, and a new crop of signings brought in to replace them. If the early summer were any indication, Liverpool signaled ambition. Two new signings to bolster the attack. Several players offloaded. But, the intervening weeks have left fans confused and with a feeling of deja vu–missed signings, feelings that the FSG was left unprepared for several exits, and ultimately unwilling to dig deeper to replace them. It’s happening again.
The new system requires at least two pivots when transitioning to offense–one being the Scouse rightback. With the loss of Fabinho and a young Stefan Bajcetic still not fully fit, there’s a serious question about who the other pivot will be. Alexis Mac Allister, the World Cup-winning midfield engine brought in from Brighton earlier this summer, could fill that role. But that’s not necessarily why he was signed. Curtis Jones might be called in to do the same, but he, too, is a player more keen to get on the front foot and get involved in the attack.
It works in the short term, but over 38 plus matches, it’s not a long-term solution. So real questions remain regarding how Liverpool will challenge in the upcoming season. The tactical shift can’t fully be implemented with the personnel on hand. The new signings are not enough to cover all the cracks.
Just after press time, and early this morning Beijing time, Liverpool agreed to terms with Brighton & Hove Albion for the highly rated Moises Caicedo. The agreed fee is £110 million. Caicedo is expected to be in Liverpool for contract negotiations and medical exams. These are predicted to be formalities. Signing the Ecuadorian answers one of the more glaring questions for Klopp’s side. He fills the gap left by Fabinho and can even provide cover for Alexander-Arnold in the event he needs a rest at right-back.
Paper Tigers?
Mo Salah ended the preseason in great form.
On paper, the first eleven looks just as formidable as any other in the league. That front five looks downright scary. Mo Salah and Company are firing on all cylinders. And the depth in those positions means there’ll be plenty of options to boost the attack later in matches or provide cover to players injured or in need of time off.
But it’s that second five, though—the base of the box and across the backline that has so many people worried. I’ve detailed some of the issues for the pivots above, so there is no need to re-engage there. Along with another DM, Signing a left-sided center back was a clear need moving into the summer. While that may mean the shift in tactics sees Andy Robertson lose a place–if he can’t adjust to the newer role–in the starting 11, it is essential if Klopp continues to utilize a back three as we move forward in attack. Even if Robbo does make the transition seamlessly, having cover is vital across the back, especially if Joel Matip and Nat Phillips leave as expected.
Regardless of what happens, the exposed right flank will remain a feature. As LFC has worked their way through the preseason, I’m not convinced they’ve sorted out ways to limit the negative impact it may have. Teams know that’s a weakness and have continued to target it. Against Bayern, the Reds were punished. I’m afraid that’ll be the case against the top six opponents in the League, too.
The season is long, and despite what the first eleven looks like on paper, it’ll be squad depth and how the club deals with the exposed right flank that ultimately makes or breaks the season–but that’s obvious. Liverpool’s front office is leaving it late to shore up whatever weaknesses exist. It’s an altogether disconcerting pattern. With a business record such as theirs, it’s fascinating that this continues to be an issue. After signing Caicedo, they may not have much left to bring in a new CB. And that could mean that an exit for Matip or Phillips is put on hold. Or a younger CB gets the nod a few times this season.
If depth across the back five hasn’t been settled, there’s a good chance Liverpool fans will face another disappointing season. And while I understand Liverpool’s sustainable business model, I can’t fathom the risky gambles they seem willing to countenance.
The Bare Minimum
The top four is a bare minimum each season. Add in a trophy or two, and you’ll keep most fans happy. But, in this era, we've all come to expect a title challenge in every season. We’re not asking for Jude Bellingham or Mbappe money to be splashed around on a single player every window. We understand the funds aren’t there for that. Besides, we need more than one signing.
Instead, we want to see the same sort of ambition the summer started with to be continued throughout the close season.
We’ll still be fans, of course. We’ll still head to the pubs or the ground to catch each match. But we’ll know that 2021-22 was the last of it. That annual title fights will be a thing of the past. That European nights won’t be guaranteed. And that’s a damn shame.
End-of-Season Predictions
If you’d asked me as the summer transfer window kicked off, I would’ve told you that we’d fight for a title, maybe even run away with it. But now, I think runner’s up will be the best we can hope for without the signings needed–a DM and an LCB. Top four, but 2nd may even be too much. Caicedo’s signing puts us right back into the race for the title. And despite having a brand-new midfield, I’m bullish on our chances. Though, I’m not sure we run away with it like 19-20.
Premier League: 3rd Champions
That said, I can see a deep run in the Europa League. It could salvage the season, especially if we’re nowhere near a title run. But like the EPL season, it’s not a straightforward proposition, and the likely opponents in Europe’s NIT will relish any chance to beat Liverpool. Thursday night football won’t be easy.
Europa League: Semifinals
Domestic Cup competitions are their own beasts. Despite winning both just two seasons ago, the prevailing sentiment is that Klopp hasn’t prioritized them. Instead, he likes to use them as opportunities for younger players. That said, if the club makes a deeper run, the gaffer will probably take it more seriously.
At the end of the day, though, the lack of depth will be a problem guaranteeing Klopp will continue to play the reserves, ultimately decreasing the chances of a deeper run.
Carabao Cup: Quarterfinalists
FA Cup: Quarterfinalists